The front made it in late this afternoon and early evening as shown by the infrared satellite photo above. Winds really increased this afternoon as the front approached as winds reached 20-25 mph in places. If you look carefully, you will see the mottled cloud pattern over the ocean...those are the classic postfrontal instability showers produced by cooler air aloft over warmer water. You will notice an area of enhanced showers out there...that is associated with an upper level trough (see map for 500 mb, the lines give the height of this pressure above sea level). So expect showers and sunbreaks tomorrow.

The latest radar image shows the frontal precipitation on the east side of the sound and an area of enhanced showers from Sequim to Whidbey Island...this is from a convergence zone to lee of the Olympics...since winds are now from the SW aloft. All convergence zones are not over Puget Sound! It all depends on the wind direction.

Nice Weekend and then Downhill a bit

I returned on Friday from a workshop in Boulder, Colorado on developing the next generation weather prediction system. Such a system would be essentially probabilistic in nature---rather than giving a single answer as we do today. It really doesn't make sense to say the high temp at Seattle in seven days will be 67F--there is substantial uncertainty in the answer and that uncertainty depends on the situation. My field is developing the technologies to provide uncertainty information--including probabilities of much more than precipitation. This is a major revolution in the way we do business. But is the population ready for this? Will they accept and use it?

While I was in Boulder it snowed! On Wednesday, there were snow flakes in the air, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30sF. Being over 5000 ft and open to the cold air to the north really helps.



This weekend will be moderate in temperature and very nice here in the NW. Look at the latest satellite image (above). You will notice some residual low clouds from a dissipating front that moved through this morning. But skies will clear and temps should rise into the mid and upper 60s for most of the west.

Tomorrow will be even nicer. High pressure (ridging) will develop aloft and its surface manifestation will be high pressure to our east (figure). You know what that implies...offshore flow and compressional warming as air descends the western slopes of the Cascades (see figure). Our friend the thermal trough will be back. So tomorrow will be sunny with many temps rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Monday really won't be too bad. A week front will approach...but will not arrive until late in the day. Thus, most of Monday will be dry, but with increasing clouds and chance of showers very late in the day.

Tuesday should be cooler and showery...but really nothing to write home about.

So enjoy a very nice weekend....

Big Daily Temperature Range and Foothills Heat

Today was hot, with many locations getting into the mid and upper 80s, and some foothills locations reaching into the 90s (see map of temps and winds at 5 PM). Why the foothills? The reason is we had fairly strong easterly flow today with downslope flow and compressional warming of the air descending the slopes. (see Seattle profiler winds and temps to see the easterly flow and warming aloft). North Bend is a favorite place for hot temps on such days because it is at the base of the Cascades and gets the maximum downslope heating. Hint: during the late fall it is sometimes MUCH warmer near North Bend and the foothills than anywhere else--good place for a hike or bike ride!

Last night there was good radiational cooling to space (since we had clear skies) and temperatures fell over most of the region...but near the foothills the temps really held up due to the downslope. See for yourself with the weather map at 7 AM. Over 70F in the foothills...but in the 50s and 40s elsewhere!
Another interesting aspect of temps today have been the large diurnal (daily) temperature range...something we frequently see in the fall under these conditions. With full sun and downslope offshore flow the temperatures can still get quite warm during the day, but the nights are getting much longer now (unfortunately for my tomatoes), and with clear skies there is good radiational cooling to space. Today, many locations were in the 40s this morning and skyrocketed to near 90F....nearly a 50F change over roughly six hours. That will crack some concrete! Don't believe me? Take a look at the temps at Shelton today (graph), where the temperature climbed from 41 to 89 over a few hours!
Tomorrow (Wed) will be slightly cooler and a marine push will occur tomorrow night....ending the heat wave. But no major weather in sight.

Super-Ridge and Late September Heat Wave

Last week I was in California...dropping my son off at college and visiting Yosemite Park. It was hot down there...even reaching 90F in the Yosemite Valley, but that is nothing compared to what is going to happen during the next few days--both down there and up here in the NW.

Take a look at the temperatures of the past two weeks (see figure above). In general, the high temps have been at or above normal...and the minimum temperature much above normal. But real heat is about to turn on.

A huge, high-amplitude upper ridge is developing over the west coast (see forecast for Tuesday morning). This is really amazing...with unusually high pressure developing aloft and at low levels. Such a major ridge is associated with warm temps aloft and with offshore flow and added warming at low levels. Look at the computer forecast for Tuesday (see figure). Very, very warm temps in California, offshore and downslope flow over the Cascades, warming over our region. Notice the development of the "thermal" trough into western Oregon and Washington....the classic warm weather pattern.
Western Washington should surge into the mid-70s tomorrow and mid-80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Impressive for late September! And I have no plans to return to California where temperatures of purgatory will abound. A heat warning is up for the SF Bay Area where some interior locations will get well into the 100s. Yosemite Valley will be in the mid 90s.
And don't forget the Willamette Valley...where temperatures will climb into the 90s. The Willamette is often 5-10F warmer than the western Washington interior...frequently even warmer.

Should you take a chance on a season ski pass this winter?

Do you feel lucky?

Several of you have asked about the outlook for this coming winter...and specifically what it implies for the ski season. Should you buy that season pass at Snoqualmie Summit or Stevens?

I hesitate to answer this question...I am already in big enough trouble with KING-5 for teasing them about my favorite Jim Forman....I don't want the Washington State Ski Owners Association on my case. So I won't give you a specific recommendation. Just some information.

This is going to be an El Nino year...one in which the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal. Take a look at the latest data over the Pacific (see attached). Meteorologists pay particular attention to the Nino3.4 area, and you can see it and adjacent sections of the tropic Pacific are now well above normal and are predicted to warm further this winter.

During El Nino winters the Northwest tends to be warmer than normal and a bit drier than normal (see figures). Cascade snowpack tends to be less. Remember this is a statistical relationship. There is a correlation with less snow during El Nino years in our mountains and in the lowlands. We will probably see less snow than last year (which ended up a surprise La Nina year). The Seattle Dept of Transportation will have an easier year, pretty much for sure.

Should you get that season ski pass? To quote Clint Eastwood: "Do you feel lucky?"

The Marine Air Cometh

6 PM visible satellite image

It has been a perfect weekend. I even finished painting my deck--ready for the storms of winter! But something is happening on the western side of the Cascades...the marine air is moving in. Notice the increase in wind speed? Or the change in wind direction? My wind chimes are ringing and the cool breezes are extraordinarily pleasant. Both the Huskies and Seahawks won this weekend, and all is right with the world.

There was a distinct contrast today in sky conditions--with a band of clouds along the Washington and Oregon coasts that extended southwestward over Oregon. (see satellite pic above). Even some light rain showers on the coast. An upper trough aloft has been slowly approaching and this afternoon its influence initiated the push of marine air eastward. Take a look at the surface chart this afternoon--southwest winds pushing into Puget Sound...with some winds gusting to 15-20 kts. In the Strait of Juan de Fuca, westerlies are moving eastward. The result..tomorrow will be cooler and cloudier--particularly in the morning--with some sunbreaks in the afternoon. Well, at least it will make it easier to go to work.

The weather observations at the UW (shown below) indicate that the temperature is about ten degrees cooler than yesterday at the same time. You can see the switch to southwesterlies around 11 AM (18Z) and the steady rise in pressure as cool, dense air moves in. And the winds!

There have been a number of comments to the blog about El Nino..and I will talk it about it more this week... but keep in mind that El Nino has little impact on our summer or early fall weather--so you CAN'T blame this wonderful September weather on the tropical Pacific so easily! And a number of you want some guidance on purchasing that season pass at Snoqualmie Pass or some other ski area. More on that later! So hold off for a few days.

Extraordinary Weekend

The red straight line is the average max, blue the average min

The past few weeks have brought temperatures at or below normal over western Washington, and above normal precipitation (see graph of temperature). This has radically reduced the fire danger threat over the west and knocked it way back east of the Cascades. But today and tomorrow summer will be back, REALLY back.

Warmer air has moved over our region and offshore flow...the key for heat in western Washington and Oregon..has returned. Don't believe that?--look at the winds aloft from the Seattle profiler this morning (see graphic). It is going to burn today, with many places away from the water getting into the upper 80s. Some places will break their daily records.

Probcast..the UW prediction website..which is almost perfect in such warming events is going upper 80s! Try it out yourself at http://www.probcast.com/ See graphic from it below.


A nice evening to enjoy a stroll in a park. Or enjoy a tropical drink on the deck.


Tomorrow will be equally as good (warm). Full sun. Sunday will be a step down into the 70s...but still very nice. And nothing threatening on Monday and Tuesday.

Perfect painting weather...which is what I will be doing. Unfortunately.

The Enumclaw Tornado

Picture courtesy of KOMO TV

Enumclaw means "place of evil spirits" in the native American vernacular and it lived up to its name on Sunday: a tornado, which started around Bonney Lake moved eastward until weakening over the the town. According to an excellent report by the National Weather Service this was a confirmed category 1 storm with winds reaching 100-110 mph. The funnel hit the ground around 4:15 PM on Sunday and continued for 9.6 miles and 16 minutes. A barn and silo was lost, some greenhouses damaged, and lots of tree damage.

The news outlets have been hitting this real hard (for once they didn't have to hype the storm...this was the real thing!).

Tornadoes are rare around here, because they generally form from supercell storms and squall lines...intense thunderstorm features that we infrequently get around here. Why don't we get powerful thunderstorms? The cool waters of the Pacific are to blame. Cool water means a lack of moisture in the air (since warm air contains more moisture than cool air), and cool air near the surface generally works against developing a large change in temperature with height...which convection needs to form (or you require in your saucepan to get convection of your hot cereal).
On Sunday the air was quite unstable for around here, with relatively mild temps near the surface and cold air moving in aloft. And the convection was initiated by an upper level feature moving in aloft. And your remember the resulting lines of convection--with some embedded thunderstorms--that pounded the whole area that day. One of those thunderstorms produced that tornado. In my book I talk in depth about how these non-supercell tornadoes form, so I won't go into too much detail here. But they generally form near some kind of shear line at low levels, where wind changes direction substantially with distance.
Anyway, the first thing I did was to look at the visible satellite picture and weather radar to see if I could spot the storm...and I have attached what I found. Hard to see the storm on the visible image unless your really knew what you were looking for, but in the radar you can see it clearly...that area of green and yellow southeast of Tacoma. Can you spot it? A problem is that Enumclaw is a good distance from the radar (which is on Camano Island).

Next I looked at the Doppler velocity of the radar, which you never see on TV. Ironically, they NEVER show the Doppler part of the Doppler radars! (Funny story...when KING-5 got their own Doppler radar, they showed the velocities for a few days...that didn't last long. It is really hard to interpret Doppler images).

Below is an example of the Doppler velocities with the overall wind removed (storm-relative velocity). You can sometimes see rotation by a sharp reveral of color in a small area (the signature of the mesocyclone associated with the tornado). There is a hint of a feature (the small yellow dot with the green next to it in around the right place) that was there for several scans...but it hard to know whether that really signified anything. Looking at this image you can see why they don't show Doppler radar images on TV!

Forecast Error?

Sometimes forecasts go wrong and sometimes the communication of details is inadequate...and today is a mixture of the two.

Significant showers are mostly over for the western lowlands and bright sun is now features over the San Juans and even a sliver down Puget Sound. (see satellite image). There is almost nothing immediately offshore. And the radar shows the rain mainly over the mountains now.

Forecast failure? Well, not exactly. The computer models yesterday showed a wet frontal system coming in this morning and that it would move through mid-afternoon, resulting in showers and sun breaks late in the day..and in fact the 3:30 AM NWS forecast tells this story:

330 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009
TODAY...RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.

However, there was a timing error...and the frontal moved through roughly 3-4 hours earlier than predicted. The result is that we have gotten into the post-frontal situation early...with sun breaks and only a few showers. The southern San Juans are in bright sunshine now and sun is blazing here in Seattle. But not for long. There is often enhanced clearing right behind the front, with some showers/clouds behind that clearing...and you will notice another band to our west. So don't expect a clear day--some of this cloudiness will move in during the next few hours. But the serious rain is over, sunbreaks will occur today, and I am heading outside to pressure wash part of my house in preparation for some painting. The NWS has even modified their forecast:

1030 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2009

REST OF TODAY...SUN BREAKS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 15 MPH.

The lesson of all this? Timing errors can occur and you can enhance your ability to do things outside by watching the weather carefully. And my profession needs to communicate timing issues better--I suspect most people didn't realize the near certainty of a break this afternoon.

And I hope the new coastal weather radar will fix this kind of timing failure...providing information upstream that would have allowed a corrected forecast last night. I have a graduate student, Reid Wolcott, working on just this issue--developing approaches for using an upstream radar in numerical weather prediction. If his research pans out and the new radar gets installed, weather predictions may get a lot better around here.

The Weekend of Wet

Cancel your hike on Saturday. Get a good book (hint...a suggestion is on the upper right of this page). Don't water your garden tomorrow. The weekend of wetness is coming. And the end of any serious threat of wildfires over the Northwest.


But not tomorrow. A weak front is approaching right now (see image) and could bring some light rain to the coast, but only some sprinkles will hit over the interior.

But wait until Saturday, when a moderate front..with plenty of moisture... will reach us.
The rain from the front will approach the coast in the early morning hours and the western lowlands between 7 and 9 AM. The three hour rainfall ending 11 AM is shown below. The front will move through during the day, bringing rain to the Cascades and even some showers to the east of the crest. Take a look at the 24-h rainfall ending 5 PM below. Perhaps a 1/4 to 1/2 inch over the lowlands. Not a good day for a hike in the Olympics. You could get away with a hike on the lower eastern Cascade slopes if you go early.
But wait. The fun doesn't stop there. The front moves through Saturday evening, followed by a short break in the action. Then an upper trough moves in bringing more showers to the region on Sunday. Take a look at the precipitation for the 24-h ending 5 PM on Sunday below. Plenty of rain over the entire state..with particularly heavy rain on the SW side of the Olympics...roughly two more inches. And eastern Washington gets enough to wet things down.
And did I mention the winds? A surface low will accompany Sunday's trough...bringing windy conditions over the ocean and along the coast (see graphic). And 25-35 kt southeasterly winds will develop over NW Washington.
Time to find your rain jackets that have been buried in your closet. You will need it. And one more thing...watch the driving. It has been fairly dry and there is lots of oil on the road. Add water and it will be slippery.

Is San Juan Island the sunniest location in western Washington?

While waiting for the ferry in Friday Harbor, I passed some time at the window of a local real-estate agent, entertained by ads for houses I will never be able to afford (unless someone buys a few hundred thousand of my books!). In some of their literature, there was the claim that the San Juan's were "sun central" for western Washington with more than 240 days of sunshine a year! And looking around on the web, I found that claim repeated on many web sites. Earlier that day I hiked around Lime Kiln Park, on the south shore of the the island and looked southward at the Olympics. It was sunny and warm, the prairie around me sandy and dry. Miles to the south, low clouds had moved through the Strait, and Port Angeles, Sequim, and Pt Townsend were in clouds. I wondered...could the sunniest place in western Washington be where I was standing?


Well, the traditional answer to the sunniest location in western Washington question has been Sequim and adjacent areas--locations downstream of the Olympics during the winter. During our wet season the winds are generally from the southwest, so air moves up the SW flanks of the Olympics (enhancing clouds and precip) and down the NE side (producing drying and less clouds). You can see this effect clearly in satellite imagery (see first image above) and the Camano Island weather radar. The San Juans, and particularly the southern San Juans, get some of this Olympics action, but they are clearly on the northern edge of the downslope drying. I suspect a quantitative analysis would show that Sequim and nearby towns are sunnier during midwinter than anywhere else in western Washington. And this explains Sequim's SunLand Condominium, Sunshine RV Park, and Sunshine Herb and Lavender Farm, among hundreds of other sun-related business names.

But hold on there! The climatological winds are only southwesterly during midwinter and during the spring and summer the incoming winds are often from the west and northwest . And there's more! There is another topographic barrier that has a rainshadow--the mountains of Vancouver Island. And with westerly flow the rain shadow from it is centered right over the western San Juans...and NOT Sequim and its fellow travelers. Take a look at the satellite picture this morning( above)...can you see the lack of clouds over San Juan Island? While Sequim is in clouds. This happens ALL the time in the late spring and summer.

So what is the bottom line here? Sequim is rainshadowed and sun endowed during the winter, but the San Juan's get a lesser piece of this action. During the warm half of the year, San Juan Island gets rainshadowed by Vancouver Island and escapes all the gunk passing through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Thus San Juan Island could be sunnier than Sequim during the summer.

It may well be that considering the whole year that southern San Juan Island and Lopez could be as sunny or sunnier than Sequim.

This could be calculated more quantitatively using satellite imagery, but at this point I will be content to let the real estate agents battle it out!

San Juan Islands Weather

San Juan Island prairie (top) and lavender farm (bottom)

I just got back from giving some lectures in the San Juans and if any place has localized weather features...it is there. The complex combination of terrain and water caused large weather variations, as does the proximity to the Olympic and Vancouver Island rainshadows.
First, there are large variations in annual precipitation. The southern portions of San Juan Island and Lopez get around 20 inches a year due to their proximity to the Olympic rainshadow, while the northern SJuan Island (say northern Orcas) gets around 30 inches, with more on Mt. Constitution and the higher terrain. Lavender likes dry conditions, so there is no surprise that a large lavender farm is found on southern San Juan Island (Pelindaba lavender farm). With dry conditions, wind, and sandy soils, southern SJ Island even has natural prairies (see image above).

Wind variations are huge there. Blockage by the terrain causes "wind shadows" in their lee. Locations (such as Mt. Constitution on the NE side of the islands get hit by the strong wintertime northeasterlies exiting the Fraser River valley. While I was kayaking one morning on the eastern side of the Orcas I was struck by the strong wind accelerations near even modest points and headlands. During the wintertime, strong southeasterlies can buffet the islands (particularly the eastern portions)...winds that are accelerated by troughing (low pressure) to the lee (north) of the Olympics. In fact, when I hiked a bit on the top of Mt. Constitution (2500ft) I could see trees that had fallen in two directions...to the SE (from the Fraser flow) and to the NW (from the strong wintertime southeasterlies).

I found lots of well-educated weather enthusiasts on the San Juans and appreciated the invitation of the San Juan Nature Institute and the San Juan County Dept of Emergency Management . And two very nice book stores--Darvill's Books (Orcas) and Griffin Bay Books (Friday Harbor) graciously attended my lecture with my NW weather books. I left signed copies at both of them.

Editorial comment: Yesterday, I went to Lime Kiln park to view the Orcas...and was not disappointed. Viewed at least a dozen of these magnificent creatures. But I was shocked that both pleasure boaters and some fishing vessels ran just offshore revving their engines and making a terrible racket as they banged repeatedly into the water. Couldn't they stay offshore to allow the poor Orcas a chance? And then a helicopter came in low and circled over them, followed by a twin-engine aircraft that came in for a look. This cacaphony can't be good for the whales, can it? The whale watching boats were out their too....shadowing the orcas...but they seems a bit more discreet than the others.

Warm and Dry Ahead

I don't want to hype the heat, but it will be warming up a bit in a few days. But before I talk about that, check out all the action in the Pacific visible satellite image (see image). Two tropical storms over the southern Pacific, a nice midlatitude cyclone in the central north Pacific, low stratus off of California, and thunderstorms over the Colorado Rockies. Something for everyone!

A weak front passed through this morning, but only trace to a few hundreds of an inch of rain fell. As the front moved through skies opened over most of the western side and temperatures rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Tomorrow (Wed) will be a step up in temperature, but Thursday will be the big day as ridging aloft develops and offshore flow strengthens at low levels. So I would expect mid to upper 70s tomorrow and mid-80s over the lowlands (away from water) on Thursday. A weak front will follow on Friday morning...but few if any showers will reach the western interior...although some showers may occur on the coast. The front will bring the temps back into the mid-70s..which is normal for this time of the year.

So nearly perfect weather...you don't need a meteorologist for a while. That is why I am heading to the San Juans to give two public lectures...see info to the right if you are interested.

Several people have asked me what is happening with the coastal weather radar. Well, my colleagues in the National Weather Service and their contractor are hard at work evaluating sites with the aid of some of us at the UW. Work is going well and a report will be made public early this fall with potential sites. But we still need for the remaining money to pass through Congress...and our U.S. Senators are working on this, with the help of our local congressmen. Looks good.

Global Warming Misconception II and Two Talks on the San Juan Islands

C02 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii

Global Average Temperature Courtesy of NASA

Well, let me start with the San Juan's first. I have been invited to give two talks there later this week. On Thursday night I will be speaking at the Senior Center, Eastsound, on Orcas at 7 PM and on Friday night at the Grange Hall in Friday Harbor (also 7 PM). These will be "meteorological red meat" talks on the some of the powerful and extreme weather our region endures. The talks will have some common material but will be different. (These talks are sponsored by the San Juan Nature Institute and the San Juan County Dept of Emergency Management).

Now down to global warming. A few comments on this blog and a HUGE number of letters to the letters of local newspapers and online comments have asked the following question:

You say CO2 causes global warming. Well, CO2 has been going up the past ten years and the earth hasn't warmed during that period! Doesn't that mean that the global warming "theory" is wrong? What gives? Some of the more passionate comments go further, talking about liberal conspiracies, Al Gore, hoaxes, and places I don't want to go right now. But reasonable people ask this question...and there is a reasonable (although complex) answer.

Lets start with the data, shown above. Co2 and other greenhouse gases are going up steadily and have been as long as we have had direct measurements. We understand this. Mankind is the culprit. No responsible scientist doubts this. The other figure shows global temperature--generally going up, but there are are some periods of slight cooling or steady temperatures. Since the late 1990s, temperatures, albeit high, have shown little trend. This is what has some people concerned. But its worst that that they say. Some global warming computer simulations show warming during that period (see figure). Now we are really in trouble. Some of the models are failing too! Fox News was right! Mayor Nickels was wrong!
Not so fast. It turns out that global warming IS a real issue and the above doesn't prove anything really. The truth is that we have a signal to noise issue. The signal is the warming due to greenhouse gases. From our computer models and theory, we know that human-induced warming was quite small until recently (last few decades). And our models and theory indicate it will rapidly increase during this century. But there is also what I will call "noise"--natural variability in the atmosphere that obscures the global warming signal.

The atmosphere has all kinds of natural cyclic and non-cyclic phenomena that causes temperatures to vary even without any global warming. You know some of the them...El Nino and La Nina. Or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Or the Arctic Oscillation. There are too many to list. And the essential character of the atmosphere can produce variations on time scales of years to decades. Call this noise. And such noise obscures the global warming signal. When global warming is relatively weak (like now) the noise can even stop the warming or even cause temporary cooling. But it won't last. Eventually the noise will change sign (to warming) or the global warming signal will inevitably strengthen as greenhouse gases increases. Global warming will become apparent and more and more significant. There are also some other minor players to note...like solar variability (e.g, the sunspot cycle), which can produce slight reductions in solar radiation for a few years (like the past few).

During the past several years, global warming has undoubtedly lessened due to a combination of natural variability and a slight weakening of solar radiation, but you can bet that this will turn around very soon. (e.g., El Nino's bring warming and we are now switching into one). The fact that warming has paused for a few years really doesn't mean anything and doesn't disprove anything.

Finally, if you have my book there is a chapter on climate change, global warming, and its local implications.

Marine air Starting to move in...

Marine air is starting to move along the coast..we should have a very weak marine push tonight...enough to cut the temps by 5-7F degrees tomorrow. The thermal trough is now moving over the mountains and an onshore pressure gradient has developed. Stratus is starting to push across the coast..and you can see this on an image I have never shown on this blog before...the fog product. By combining several infrared wavelengths observed by satellite we can see low clouds at night..take a look at the figure. See the whiter stuff on the coast..that's the low clouds. The latest surface chart below shows southwesterly and westerly flow pushing in around Hoquiam.
Low clouds may make it into the Strait and perhaps to Shelton and Olympia..but it should burn back rapidly in the morning. If today was a tad hot for you, tomorrow will be heaven.

If you want to see an extraordinary picture from the high resolution NASA MODIS satellite...look at this. You can clearly see massive amounts of smoke from the BC fires and the low clouds off the coast.

Finally, my kidding around with KING-5's hypesters should not be taken as a lack of respect for their weather personnel, which are really top rate. And lets face it, other stations partake in weather hype as well....although to be fair, none of them have ace Jim Forman, who is in a class by himself. And their segment on the heat wave tonight was quite reasonable. Sometime, perhaps after a few glasses of wine, I might blog about the TV weathercasters of our area, but the bottom line will be fairly unexciting..we have unusually good tv weather people in this market. But I better stop before I get into any more trouble.

Killer Heat Wave or Killer Hype?

IRONY ALERT!!

Updated 2 PM, Wednesday. Guess who showed up at my office just now????...a reporter (Glenn Farley) and cameraman from KING-5 TV!!! They wanted to talk about the hot, dry summer and how unusual it was! When they closed my room's shades, turned on their blinding lights, and closed the door...well, I was a little concerned. I am afraid to see what will go on air tonight. Some sort of revenge tactic? Will they turn me into a scarester too? We'll see.


The media was up to its old tricks last night-- this time hyping the upcoming "dangerous" heat wave. All the TV stations do it, but none are better at it than KING-5. They are masters of the art. First the news anchors broach the topic, with tremulous voices asking the question--will a dangerous heat wave hit the region the next day? Then they turn to a smiling, yet serious, Jeff Renner who provides a knowing, sympathetic, nod of agreement. Last night, he had his work cut out for him, but finds the most extreme temperature maxima in the region to provide some reason for concern (last night he had to really stretch, quoting the temperature in Vancouver, WA.,which gets the Willamette Valley heat). And then they always turn to their on-scene scarester-reporter. And KING has the top weather scarester in the country...Jim Forman. I love this guy. I wish they sold tapes of his segments...I could watch it for hours. In the winter he hypes snow and in the summer heat. During the last heat wave he had a giant round thermometer stuck at 105F that he kept on flailing about. If nothing threatening is going on...no problem..he will describe the terrible events that will certainly happen to the unprepared. And he always shows people desperately buying emergency supplies in convenience stores and supermarkets. I mean...this guy has a winning formula.

Anyway, our models are indicating a substantial warm up tomorrow...and the central and south Sound could see a few 90s....particularly away from the water. The probcast forecast system (www.probcast.com), whose strength includes these types of days is predicting 92F for Sea Tac tomorrow. (Check the graphic for max temps tomorrow).

Easterly flow will develop tonight over the region, bringing further warming to the west side (and the over us is already quite warm). As you can see from the surface weather chart (pressure and temps shown), the famous thermal trough will move into western Washington (chart) with the heat....our temperatures will spike tomorrow and then decline a bit Thursday as some marine air moves in Thursday AM and the thermal trough jumps to the east side.

7 AM update...on wed..looks more like 89-90F at Sea Tac today..warmer, but not that warmer than yesterday