The visible satellite picture today show two things...the clouds on the western side of the Cascades and the approaching weather system offshore. Eastern Washington and Oregon are nearly clear and sunny. We have now switched to the period when eastern Washington no longer clouds in...so very frequently they are clear, when the west side is in clouds. A good time to visit your favorite winery and dry-land hike.

The approaching system is stronger than most this time of the year and the low center will cross northern Vancouver Island (see image for 8 AM tomorrow). It will get breezy later tomorrow am as the low passes north of us, but the big issue will be rain.

The two images that follow show you the predicted 24-h precipitation ending 5 PM tomorrow and Monday. Quite wet tomorrow--with the model going for 2-5 inches on some windward slopes! And a spectacular rainshadow. Head to Sequim tomorrow...somewhere around there may be completely dry...maybe even with some sun breaks. The second day precip is still signficant..but those are mainly showers...with a strong Puget Sound convergence zone (see the next figure for 11 PM on Sunday). Behind the system, temperatures and the snow level will drop...and expect snow..lots of it above 1500 ft (check on the 24h snow ending Monday at 5 AM)

Rain on Sunday (and in Hawaii)

After three days of above normal temps, we have now switched to a cooler pattern...but the big change will be on Sunday, when heavy rain will probably hit the region....take a look at some of the 24-h rainfall totals from the local high-resolution WRF model for the periods ending 5 PM on Sunday and Monday. The first image shows a nice rainshadow NE of the Olympics and the second a strong Puget Sound convergence zone. A strong warm front will move through late Saturday/early Sunday, with a fairly deep low center passing across northern Vancouver Island.

And if it makes you feel better, Hawaii is getting wet and cloudy weather (see satellite image)...although tomorrow they will 80F with the rain!

The Transition

The Seattle Profiler shows the transition to marine air very nicely...(image). You can see the easterly and northerly flow on Tuesday)when it was warm and the change to strong southeries and cooler temps as the marine air came in.

The First Push of the Year

One of the key warm season weather features of the Northwest is the onshore or marine "push"---one of my personal favorites. These events occur following a period of above-average temperatures associated with high pressure inland and offshore flow. The high pressure subsequently moves inland and a weather disturbance approaches from the west, causing an influx of cool, often cloudy, air from off the Pacific.

You know what I am talking about...following a warm day, the winds strengthen and turn to the southwest. Leaves russle and wind chimes ring, and the air become perceptibly cooler. You got to love this. It is the natural air conditioning of western Washington, BC, and Oregon.

Well, a weak version is happening right now. We have had high pressure west of us, providing sunny skies, and warm, offshore flow..with the warming aided by descent down the western slopes of the Cascades (image). The offshore flow helps causing warming and pressure falls (warm air is less dense, thus lower pressure) and the establishment of a "thermal" trough over us (image). Then as the high pressure west of us weakens and a Pacific disturbance approaches, the low "jumps" into eastern Washington and cool air surges inland (image). You can see the cooling...yellows and reds (warm) replaced by greens (cooler).

I have a whole section on this feature in the book if you would like to learn more. One way to see the push happening is to look at the difference in pressure between the coast and the western interior...I like to check out the Hoquiam minus Seattle pressure difference (HQM-SEA). When that gets to around 3-4 mb, you know a major push is underway. You can follow the changing pressure gradients at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/pd.cgi

Onshore pushes happen around a dozen times over a typical summer and usually are very well forecast. This is the first of hopefully many.

By the way, I will be giving a public talk on microclimates and horticulture at the Center for Urban Horticulture next week (April 16)....you can see the details to the right if you are interested...this is a luncheon sponsored by Dunn Gardens and the Seattle Horticultural Associaton.

PS: The governor should be commended for advocating a tuition increase large enough to preserve the core strengths of the state universities. To turn away students or throw away years of building of academic strength would be foolish for both the students and the state.

Heat Wave

You are not going to believe what is going to happen today. After weeks of far colder than normal weather, a veritable heat wave will begin today. But first consider where we have been (see graphic). Yesterday, was the first day in weeks with both sunshine and normal temperatures...but today we will enjoy temps far above normal...reaching 70F in some locations. We now have high pressure inland and a low offshore (graphic), such a situation produces offshore flow and moves down the western slopes of the Cascades. In fact,the profiler winds in Seattle shows strong southeasterly winds above us...and warm air aloft. An inversion near the surface is apparent (temps increasing with height near the surface)...but that will burn off quickly. With offshore flow the foothills areas are often the warmest, since they are front line to the air that has warmed as it sinks (compression by higher pressure increases temps). In fact, the temps this morning show this effect...look at the plot of temps...it is warmer in the foothills than near the Sound.
Anyway, today will be in the upper sixties to low 70s, tomorrow will be similar, and Tuesday should also be above normal. And did I say it would be dry during this period? A transition to cooler temps are in store for Thursday...with some rain.

ps: I will be talking about north Sound weather at the Everett Public library (downtown everett) today at 2 PM...

State Budget Cuts and Atmospheric Sciences

Many of you have read about the State budget and the proposed severe budget cuts at the University of Washington. The implications of these cuts are now becoming clear...and the effects on teaching atmospheric sciences in our department are very disturbing.

I am not talking about faculty and staff pay, which will be frozen. Or the inability to fill retiring faculty or to avoid major staff cuts....those will happen...and in fact we have already laid off one staff member. What really bothers me are the implications for the students who wish to study atmospheric sciences.

Some examples:

This fall I will teach atmospheric sciences 101--the big (240 student) introductory class--something a really enjoy. Normally, there is myself and 3 TAs, which allows us to not only have the lectures, but small sections where students get to closely interact with an instructor, who know them as a person. With three TA's we can also grade complex homeworks (weather map analyses, calculations, etc) and provide substantial personal feedback. Becuase of the upcoming budget cuts I will lose two of the TA's...radically reducing our ability to do the above and substantially undermining the student's learning experience. This will be particularly true of the weaker students who need more personal help. The students will lose a great deal.

But I will tell you an impact that is even more worrisome...the student's who will never get into the UW who want to major in atmospheric sciences. I am the undergraduate advisor and see the lists of students who have applied or have been accepted to the UW and who have indicated my department for their future major. This year something has really changed....FAR more students are on the waiting list. Students who would have easily gotten into the UW in the past are now being told there may not be a spot for them at the UW. Something has changed...far fewer students are being accepted--clearly the UW is going to admit far less students this year because of the budget cuts (in fact the Seattle Times suggested that 10K fewer studens for all higher education in our state). For student's interested in atmospheric sciences, the results are really devastating. The UW has the only atmospheric sciences dept in not only the entire State, but the entire Northwest. So for many, especially those who can't afford to travel out of the region or to pay for out-of-state tuition, this is the end of their career in meteorology, and for many the termination of their chance fortheir dream profession. I had one student who called last week who sounded like he was desperate and nearly in tears over his wait list situation. And I had no good options for him.
I could give other examples, but the above are powerful illustrations of the substantial harm that will be done if higher education sustains the huge hits in the Senate and House (even worse) budgets.

There is a way to deal with this....allow the higher education institutions to increase tuition beyond 7%, using some of the money to insure that students with need are taken care of. This is the higher tuition-higher aid model. Currently, UW tuitition is substantially below its peers. By allowing tuition to rise, but with radically increased financial aid, a large portion of the budget cutbacks could be offset, allowing the UW to keep our current registration numbers and saving instructional support (like TAs). Money will not be removed from other hard-hit state programs. Time is short now...if you want to help, email or contact your state legislators, asking them to support this tuition-based solution.

snow on the hills

Someone asked about snow this morning...yes, it is cold enough that I would not be surprised to snow mixed in at higher elevations in the lowlands (above 500 ft)....the latest profiler in Seattle shows a freezing level of 1500 ft, so there could be snow down to 1000 ft below that...and precipiation could cause the freezng level to drop a bit.